Table 6 Model performance measures for models 5 and 6 in a competing risks setting

Average predicted risk (%)

1.61

1.55

Average observed risk (%)

1.56 (1.41, 1.72)

1.56 (1.41, 1.72)

Discrimination

 C-index (up to 5 years)

0.929 (0.912, 0.945)

0.932 (0.915, 0.946)

Calibration

 O/E ratio

0.973 (0.874, 1.07)

1.01 (0.913, 1.11)

 Calibration intercept

0.035 (−0.111, 0.180)

0.286 (0.153, 0.420)

 Calibration slope

0.886 (0.804, 0.969)

1.01 (0.916, 1.10)

Overall fit

 Brier score

0.011 (0.010, 0.012)

0.011 (0.010, 0.012)

 Scaled Brier score (%)

29.4 (25.1, 34.5)

28.9 (25.4, 33.0)