Table 4 A comparison of model performance across models 2–5
Performance measure | Model 2a | Model 2b | Model 3a | Model 3b | Model 4 | Model 5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
White (95% CI) | South Asian (95% CI) | White (95% CI) | South Asian (95% CI) | White (95% CI) | South Asian (95% CI) | White (95% CI) | South Asian (95% CI) | |
Discrimination | ||||||||
C-index (up to 5 years) | 0.908 (0.886, 0.928) | 0.954 (0.933, 0.968) | 0.908 (0.886, 0.928) | 0.954 (0.933, 0.968) | 0.908 (0.886, 0.928) | 0.954 (0.933, 0.968) | 0.919 (0.898, 0.939) | 0.957 (0.936, 0.974) |
Calibration | ||||||||
O/E ratio | 0.938 (0.821, 1.06) | 1.00 (0.815, 1.19) | 0.946 (0.828, 1.06) | 0.967 (0.778, 1.16) | 0.938 (0.821, 1.06) | 1.01 (0.820, 1.20) | 1.12 (1.00, 1.24) | 0.972 (0.782, 1.16) |
Calibration intercept | 0.094 (−0.067, 0.255) | 0.146 (−0.120, 0.413) | 0.062 (−0.101, 0.226) | 0.151 (−0.103, 0.404) | 0.096 (−0.065, 0.257) | 0.153 (−0.113, 0.419) | 0.227 (0.046, 0.409) | 0.156 (−0.107, 0.419) |
Calibration slope | 1.05 (0.920, 1.18) | 0.843 (0.690, 0.995) | 1.02 (0.894, 1.15) | 0.917 (0.751, 1.08) | 1.05 (0.921, 1.18) | 0.843 (0.691, 0.996) | 0.905 (0.798, 1.01) | 0.950 (0.752, 1.15) |
Overall fit | ||||||||
Brier score | 0.011 (0.009, 0.012) | 0.029 (0.023, 0.035) | 0.011 (0.009, 0.012) | 0.029 (0.023, 0.034) | 0.011 (0.009, 0.012) | 0.029 (0.023, 0.035) | 0.010 (0.009, 0.012) | 0.025 (0.019, 0.030) |
Scaled Brier score (%) | 25.4 (20.2, 29.3) | 34.6 (20.7, 43.7) | 25.6 (21.3, 29.4) | 35.0 (23.6, 45.3) | 25.4 (19.7, 29.8) | 34.6 (21.8, 44.1) | 27.4 (22.7, 31.6) | 43.8 (31.9, 52.8) |