Fig. 1

Calibration plots for predicted versus observed 5-year risk of KRT by ethnic group, alongside the distribution of the predictions. Individuals were categorised into risk groups using deciles of predicted risk according to the original non-North American KFRE. Underneath the plots are histograms of the distribution of the predicted risk. The dashed line indicates perfect calibration. The black dots represent the predicted and observed risk for each decile of risk group, with the blue bars showing the 95% confidence interval. The predicted risk of KRT in the cohort is low, so the majority of the risk groups are in the bottom left of the plots. The plots were thus truncated at 50% risk on the first row, and at 5% on the second row, to show the calibration more closely